{"id":1074,"date":"2021-01-30T10:42:08","date_gmt":"2021-01-30T09:42:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hudecekpetr.cz\/?p=1074"},"modified":"2021-01-30T10:48:48","modified_gmt":"2021-01-30T09:48:48","slug":"recenze-a-navod-na-koronahra-cz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hudecekpetr.cz\/cs\/recenze-a-navod-na-koronahra-cz\/","title":{"rendered":"Recenze a n\u00e1vod na koronahra.cz"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>
Sn\u00edmek obrazovky z hlavn\u00ed obrazovky hry koronahra.cz<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

Hry o kontrole epidemie se \u010dasto pot\u00fdkaj\u00ed s probl\u00e9mem, \u017ee kdy\u017e provedete protiepidemick\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed v\u010das a siln\u011b, tak m\u016f\u017eete virus eliminovat a p\u0159edej\u00edt tak komplikovan\u00e9 f\u00e1zi hry.<\/p>\n

Na internetu se ale objevila simula\u010dn\u00ed hra, koronahra.cz<\/a>, kter\u00e1 tomu p\u0159edch\u00e1z\u00ed zaprv\u00e9 tak, \u017ee za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1te u\u017e v rozvinut\u00e9 epidemii, ale hlavn\u011b tak, \u017ee v\u00e1m ka\u017ed\u00fd den p\u0159ibyde 10 nemocn\u00fdch, a\u0165 d\u011bl\u00e1te co chcete, a tedy epidemii nem\u016f\u017eete nikdy zastavit.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Krom\u011b toho je simulace ve h\u0159e extr\u00e9mn\u011b sez\u00f3nn\u00ed: v l\u00e9t\u011b se virus \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e v zim\u011b, a to, spolu s dal\u0161\u00edmi \u010dasovan\u00fdmi ud\u00e1lostmi (letn\u00ed pr\u00e1zdniny, o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed) tak\u00e9 dod\u00e1v\u00e1 r\u016fzn\u00fdm f\u00e1z\u00edm hry na zvl\u00e1\u0161tnosti a zaj\u00edmavosti.<\/p>\n

Hra m\u011b bavila mnoho hodin (ka\u017ed\u00fd pokus mi trval zhruba 20 minut), a mysl\u00edm, \u017ee m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt zaj\u00edmav\u00e1 pro jednotlivce i ve skupin\u011b (hra samotn\u00e1 je single-player, ale m\u016f\u017eete hr\u00e1t p\u0159es sd\u00edlenou obrazovku).<\/p>\n

Ve h\u0159e ovl\u00e1d\u00e1te opat\u0159en\u00ed proti koronaviru (zav\u0159en\u00ed \u0161kol, omezen\u00ed pohybu, apod.) a sna\u017e\u00edte se balancovat po\u010det mrtv\u00fdch oproti dluhu st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu, pop\u0159. si m\u016f\u017eete zvolit i vlastn\u00ed c\u00edl: Ve h\u0159e nen\u00ed jednozna\u010dn\u00e9, jestli je v\u00e1\u0161 v\u00fdsledek lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v\u00fdsledek n\u011bkoho jin\u00e9ho. M\u016f\u017eete porovn\u00e1vat po\u010det mrtv\u00fdch, mno\u017estv\u00ed vynalo\u017een\u00fdch pen\u011bz nebo po\u010det dn\u00ed bez \u0161koln\u00ed v\u00fduky. Na konci hry se v\u00e1m objev\u00ed graf srovn\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1\u0161 v\u00fdsledek na dvou os\u00e1ch (po\u010det mrtv\u00fdch a po\u010det pen\u011bz) s ostatn\u00edmi hr\u00e1\u010di.<\/p>\n

Hra trv\u00e1 od b\u0159ezna 2020 do \u010dervna 2021, a obsahuje n\u011bkolik ud\u00e1lost\u00ed: od letn\u00edch pr\u00e1zdnin, kde jsou \u0161koly zav\u0159en\u00e9 zadarmo, po o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 v\u00e1m ke konci hry sni\u017euje rychlost n\u00e1kazy. Hra m\u00e1 velmi velkou znovuhratelnost a je mo\u017en\u00fdch n\u011bkolik r\u016fzn\u00fdch strategi\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Simulace je velmi dob\u0159e pops\u00e1na, spolu s dal\u0161\u00edmi informacemi o epidemii ve skute\u010dn\u00e9m sv\u011bta, na str\u00e1nce\u00a0Metodika<\/em><\/a>,\u00a0kde auto\u0159i popisuj\u00ed pravidla hry podrobn\u011b. Toho si velmi cen\u00edm: m\u00e1m velmi r\u00e1d hry, obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pak strategie jako je tato, ve kter\u00fdch m\u00e1 hr\u00e1\u010d pln\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k pravidl\u016fm a nemus\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 odhadovat, co po n\u011bm hra vlastn\u011b chce.<\/p>\n

Celkov\u011b je toto zat\u00edm nejlep\u0161\u00ed hra na t\u00e9ma covid-19, jakou jsem zat\u00edm hr\u00e1l. Pokud se mi na h\u0159e n\u011bco nel\u00edb\u00ed, tak to je, \u017ee neumo\u017e\u0148uje strategii\u00a0containmentu\u00a0po vzoru zem\u00ed v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie; rozum\u00edm ov\u0161em, pro\u010d se auto\u0159i hry takto rozhodli. Koneckonc\u016f, absenci mo\u017enosti zastavit epidemii v sam\u00e9m po\u010d\u00e1tku jsem hodnotit i jako kladn\u00fd rys hry.<\/p>\n

Strategie<\/h2>\n
\"\"<\/a>
Graf nov\u011b naka\u017een\u00fdch na konci jedn\u00e9 z m\u00fdch her<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ad strategie: d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee v t\u00e9to h\u0159e v\u00e1m ka\u017ed\u00fd den p\u0159ijde +-70 nov\u00fdch nemocn\u00fdch (pokud m\u00e1te otev\u0159en\u00e9 hranice) nebo +-10 nov\u00fdch nemocn\u00fdch (pokud zav\u0159en\u00e9), i pokud \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 vnit\u0159n\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed nem\u00e1te. Pokud v\u00e1m tedy p\u0159ib\u00fdv\u00e1 m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 10 nemocn\u00fdch denn\u011b, znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee jste na limitu, n\u00ed\u017e se nedostanete, a m\u016f\u017eete bez nev\u00fdhody n\u011bjak\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed uvolnit.<\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9 h\u0159e v\u00e1m zem\u0159e minim\u00e1ln\u011b +-84 lid\u00ed (naka\u017een\u00ed skrze hranice). Pokud budete m\u00edt hranice otev\u0159en\u00e9 celou dobu, zem\u0159e minim\u00e1ln\u011b +- 430 lid\u00ed. Pokud je pro v\u00e1s 430 \u00famrt\u00ed u\u017e neakceptovateln\u00e9, je tedy m\u00edt nutn\u00e9 zav\u0159en\u00e9 hranice celou dobu.<\/p>\n

Z opat\u0159en\u00ed jsou 3R zadarmo (-14% n\u00e1kazy, m\u011bjte aktivn\u00ed celou dobu), velmi levn\u00e9 je zav\u0159en\u00ed v\u0161ech \u0161kol (-38% za 64 mil. denn\u011b), a omezen\u00ed hromadn\u00fdch akc\u00ed na 10 (-42% za 117 mil. denn\u011b). Zav\u0159en\u00ed slu\u017eeb je velmi drah\u00e9, z\u00e1kaz vych\u00e1zen\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u011b drah\u00fd (-13% za 1500 mil.). Zav\u0159en\u00ed jen rizikov\u00fdch slu\u017eeb nebo vysok\u00fdch \u0161kol nebo jin\u00e9 omezen\u00ed hromadn\u00fdch akc\u00edch m\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek (a \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dnou ztr\u00e1tu pen\u011bz) — mysl\u00edm, \u017ee to jde line\u00e1rn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Ve zbytku \u010dl\u00e1nku p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee chcete minimalizovat po\u010det \u00famrt\u00ed a mno\u017estv\u00ed vynalo\u017een\u00fdch pen\u011bz, a p\u0159itom neprohr\u00e1t na spole\u010denskou stabilitu — ale na stabilit\u011b na konci hry a na po\u010dtu ztracen\u00fdch \u0161koln\u00edch dn\u00ed v\u00e1m nez\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ve v\u0161ech strategi\u00edch: <\/strong>Opat\u0159en\u00ed se daj\u00ed se\u0159adit podle pom\u011bru cena\/v\u00fdkon. Nejv\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je zav\u0159en\u00ed \u0161kol, pak omezen\u00ed hromadn\u00fdch akc\u00ed, pak zav\u0159en\u00ed slu\u017eeb, nejm\u00e9n\u011b v\u00fdhodn\u00fd je pak z\u00e1kaz vych\u00e1zen\u00ed. Nem\u00e1 tak smysl zav\u00edrat slu\u017eby nebo zakazovat akce, pokud m\u00e1te otev\u0159en\u00e9 \u0161koly: rad\u0161i zav\u0159ete \u0161koly a z\u00edsk\u00e1te tak v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed n\u00e1kazy za ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed cenu. Opat\u0159en\u00ed 3R je zadarmo a v\u017edy ho m\u011bjte zapnut\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Pokud chcete na konci 200-1000 mrtv\u00fdch:<\/strong> Extra kompenzace nepot\u0159ebujete (tak n\u00edzko v\u00e1m stabilita neklesne), z\u00e1kaz vych\u00e1zen\u00ed nepot\u0159ebujete (stoj\u00ed moc pen\u011bz). Simulace je extr\u00e9mn\u011b sez\u00f3nn\u00ed: siln\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed pot\u0159ebujete obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b na sam\u00e9m za\u010d\u00e1tku (abyste dostali pod kontrolu n\u00e1kazy vzniklou jakoby p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem hry), a pak na podzim a obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b leden-b\u0159ezen 2021. Naopak sn\u00ed\u017eit opat\u0159en\u00ed m\u016f\u017eete v l\u00e9t\u011b 2020, a velmi rychle m\u016f\u017eete sn\u00ed\u017eit opat\u0159en\u00ed v dubnu 2021 — kombinace o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed a po\u010d\u00e1tku l\u00e9ta znamen\u00e1, \u017ee se \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed viru velmi zpomal\u00ed). V n\u00e1hodn\u00fdch akc\u00edch v\u017edycky zvolte bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed variantu (koresponden\u010dn\u00ed volby, z\u00e1kaz setk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed b\u011bhem V\u00e1noc, apod.): spole\u010densk\u00e9 stability m\u00e1te dost, a jinak ztrat\u00edte p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho pen\u011bz na \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed vznikl\u00e9 vlny n\u00e1kazy. Je patrn\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed m\u00edt celou dobu zav\u0159en\u00e9 hranice (u\u0161et\u0159\u00edte 300 \u017eivot\u016f za cenu zhruba 150 miliard), ale mo\u017en\u00e1 ne. Nev\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Pokud chcete na konci 200-500 mrtv\u00fdch:<\/strong> Jako v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm odstavci, ale zav\u0159en\u00e9 hranice jsou nutnost. Kompenzace st\u00e1le nepot\u0159ebujete.<\/p>\n

Pokud chcete 80-200 mrtv\u00fdch:<\/strong> Krom\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho budete muset udr\u017eovat velmi siln\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159es cel\u00fd rok. St\u00e1le bych doporu\u010dil se obej\u00edt alespo\u0148 bez z\u00e1kazu vych\u00e1zen\u00ed, krom\u011b mo\u017en\u00e1 v lednu-b\u0159eznu 2021.<\/p>\n

Strategie pro 1000+ mrtv\u00fdch jsem nezkoumal, takov\u00fd po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed byl pro m\u011b nep\u0159ijateln\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Dokud se nenau\u010d\u00edte sez\u00f3nnost a spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 okam\u017eiky pro zm\u011bnu opat\u0159en\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v\u00fdhodn\u00e1 strategie podobn\u00e1 PES: zvol\u00edte si doln\u00ed limit, a pokud po\u010det nov\u011b naka\u017een\u00fdch konzistentn\u011b je dva t\u00fddny pod n\u00edm, tak uvoln\u00edte jedno opat\u0159en\u00ed a dva t\u00fddny \u010dek\u00e1te. Zvol\u00edte si i horn\u00ed limit a pokud je po\u010det naka\u017een\u00fdch konzistentn\u011b nad n\u00edm, p\u0159id\u00e1te opat\u0159en\u00ed a \u010dek\u00e1te. M\u016f\u017eete nap\u0159\u00edklad zvolit limity 30 jako doln\u00ed limit a 50 jako horn\u00ed limit.<\/p>\n

Moje v\u00fdsledky p\u0159i t\u00e9to strategii nakonec byly:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Bez zav\u0159en\u00fdch hranic: 982 mrtv\u00fdch za 526 miliard<\/li>\n
  • S otev\u0159en\u00fdmi hranicemi: 339 mrtv\u00fdch za 735 miliard<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Hry o kontrole epidemie se \u010dasto pot\u00fdkaj\u00ed s probl\u00e9mem, \u017ee kdy\u017e provedete protiepidemick\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed v\u010das a siln\u011b, tak m\u016f\u017eete virus eliminovat a p\u0159edej\u00edt tak komplikovan\u00e9 f\u00e1zi hry. Na internetu se ale objevila simula\u010dn\u00ed hra, koronahra.cz, kter\u00e1 tomu p\u0159edch\u00e1z\u00ed zaprv\u00e9 tak, \u017ee za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1te u\u017e v rozvinut\u00e9 epidemii, ale hlavn\u011b tak, \u017ee v\u00e1m ka\u017ed\u00fd den p\u0159ibyde 10 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1074","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hudecekpetr.cz\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1074","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hudecekpetr.cz\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hudecekpetr.cz\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hudecekpetr.cz\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hudecekpetr.cz\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1074"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/hudecekpetr.cz\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1074\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1080,"href":"https:\/\/hudecekpetr.cz\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1074\/revisions\/1080"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hudecekpetr.cz\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1074"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hudecekpetr.cz\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1074"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hudecekpetr.cz\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1074"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}